There is a season for every investment. Whether it is calm or stormy, we are committed to knowing market fundamentals and the technical trends that will help us chart a safe financial course.

Decision Process

Overview

  1. Define/quantify macro environment
  2. Identify sectors likely to do well
  3. Select stocks in those sectors with strong fundamentals and good technical price patterns
  4. Use risk measurement and management tools and other technical tools to determine timing and price of entry/exit

Led by Jim Puplava and Tom Smith, the members of Jim Puplava's Research and Trading Team (Ryan Puplava, Chris Puplava, and outside consultants), combine their unique areas of professional expertise to fine-tune our investment selections.

Through our research and due diligence, we begin with economic macro-trends and then focus on the sectors that should benefit from these trends. After the sector analysis is performed, we combine traditional fundamental analysis with quantitative analysis to evaluate individual companies within those sectors. We perform qualitative analysis to assess a company's individual business model and to determine its standing in its industry, and apply quantitative measures to gauge the quality of its current earnings and to give us insight into their future earnings potential. We then monitor overall market conditions and specific characteristics of each investment to determine price and timing of entry (or exit).

DEVELOPING THE MACRO VIEW

We identify changing secular global macro trends and themes. Our independent viewpoint, which oftentimes runs contrary to that of the mainstream, is centered on uncovering shifting paradigms and is the hallmark of our research. Our macro-level analysis allows us to determine how specific sectors and individual companies may adapt to and profit from change. This analysis is central to our ability to identify sectors and companies poised to benefit from global macro trends before they are fully recognized by the market.

The portfolio management team is key to identifying and monitoring macro trends and issues as well. Through constant informal cross-consultations with each other, as well as formal investment strategy meetings, the portfolio managers have an opportunity to share their own research, investment ideas, and analysis of the markets. In this way, the portfolio managers benefit from others' specializations: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, risk measurement, macro analysis, etc.

See our Investment Philosophy for a description of the macro view currently driving our investment decisions.

SECTOR SELECTION

Once the trading team has quantified the characteristics of the macro environment, they begin narrowing down investment opportunities to those in sectors that they feel are likely to perform well given the macro environment.

Although there are several sectors that are likely to be held in client accounts for the long term some sectors are only held for the short-to-intermediate-term based on the team's reading of the economic cycle, earnings outlooks, and technical considerations.

See our Portfolio Allocation Strategy for more details on sector rotation in client accounts.

SELECTION OF INDIVIDUAL HOLDINGS

Once potentially attractive sectors have been identified, the team further narrows investment opportunities to specific opportunities with attractive fundamental characteristics in those sectors. Opportunities with improving fundamental characteristics become buy candidates. Some of these fundamentals may include, but are not limited to:

  • revenue and earnings acceleration
  • positive earnings surprises
  • positive analyst earnings revisions
  • new product launch
  • accretive acquisition/attractive joint venture
  • managerial change
  • restructuring
  • rating upgrades
  • exposure to growing economies

TRADING DECISION-MAKING

Opportunities with improving fundamental characteristics must also have attractive technical characteristics. We focus on opportunities that are in either basing or early in the advancing stage of their chart patterns. Generally, positions  that are trading above critical moving averages and key resistance levels are either purchased for the portfolio or added to an existing position. As positions become extended above moving averages, positions generally are trimmed to reduce exposure. If names break down below support or moving averages they are either trimmed or sold outright.


INVEST WITH US

If you are interested in opening an account, please complete our Invest with Us inquiry form or call us directly at (888) 486-3939 or (858) 487-3939.


Three companies sharing the same vision
At PFS Group, we are committed to helping you build, maintain, and preserve your wealth